Total Revenue

-0.1% (Q1 2025: $7,085M vs Q1 2024: $7,095M)

Total Revenue remained virtually unchanged, indicating that offsetting factors in revenue components (such as a slight decline in Single-Family Net Revenues vs. small gains from fee-based income) maintained stability, similar to previous periods where modest fluctuations were observed. " "

Single-Family Net Interest Income

-1.2% (Q1 2025: $1,135M vs Q1 2024: $1,149M)

A slight decline in interest income reflects lower performance in interest-bearing components, echoing earlier trends in FY 2024 where deferred income drops impacted results, despite some offset from base guaranty fee income improvements. " "

Fee and Other Income (Single-Family)

+11.8% (Q1 2025: $19M vs Q1 2024: $17M)

Fee and Other Income increased due to improved compensation from structured transactions and enhanced lender services, building on prior gains in this area and suggesting an operational focus on high-margin fee income. " "

Single-Family Net Revenues

-1.0% (Q1 2025: $1,154M vs Q1 2024: $1,166M)

Overall Single-Family Net Revenues slightly declined as the small drop in Net Interest Income was only partially offset by increased Fee and Other Income, maintaining a pattern similar to previous periods where volatile interest income was balanced by fee income adjustments. " "

Cash and Cash Equivalents

+214% (Q1 2025: $39,352M vs Q1 2024: $12,524M)

The dramatic increase in cash balances resulted from robust cash inflows from loan repayments, MBS sales, and funding debt issuances, paired with a strategic shift away from short-term securities to longer-term instruments—a significant evolution relative to the previous period. " "

Restricted Cash

+85% (Q1 2025: $38,445M vs Q1 2024: $20,730M)

Increased Restricted Cash is largely due to higher prepayments of loans held in consolidated trusts, continuing the upward trend seen in FY 2024 as the company adjusted operational practices to secure more cash in trust. " "

Securities Purchased Under Agreements to Resell

-57% (Q1 2025: $31,769M vs Q1 2024: $73,725M)

A significant drop in these securities is linked to the strategic reinvestment of proceeds from the sale of MBS, as the firm shifted its focus from short-term repurchase agreements to longer-term Treasury investments—a marked change from the prior period’s allocation. " "

Total Stockholders’ Equity

+20% (Q1 2025: $98,312M vs Q1 2024: $82,006M)

The robust increase in equity is driven by strong net income and comprehensive income gains, which contributed to reducing the accumulated deficit and strengthening the balance sheet—continuing the positive trend observed in previous periods. " "

Mortgage Rates

FY 2025

Expected to remain elevated above 6% in 2025 "

Expected to average 6.5% for FY 2025 "

no change

Home Sales

FY 2025

no prior guidance

Total home sales expected to be 4.9 million units "

no prior guidance

Home Price Growth

FY 2025

3.5% in 2025 "

4.1% in 2025 "

raised

Single-Family Mortgage Originations

FY 2025

About $1.9 trillion "

About $2.0 trillion in FY 2025 "

raised

Rent Growth

FY 2025

Expected in the 2% to 2.5% range "

Multifamily Rent Growth: 2% to 2.5% "

no change

Multifamily Vacancy Rates

FY 2025

Forecasted to be between 6% and 6.25% "

Expected to rise to 6.25% "

no change

Multifamily Market Originations

FY 2025

Between $330 billion and $375 billion "

Between $325 billion and $365 billion "

lowered

Earnings Strength

Q2, Q3, and Q4 2024 discussions emphasized consecutive quarters of positive earnings, strong net income figures (e.g. Q4’s 4.1 billion " " " , Q3’s 4.0 billion " " , and Q2’s 4.5 billion " " ) and solid revenue performance.

Q1 2025 highlighted 29 consecutive quarters of positive earnings with net income of $3.7 billion and flat net revenue, while noting changes in credit loss provisions and noninterest expense increases. " "

Stable performance with consistent positive earnings but with a subtle shift in key figures and expense dynamics.

Consistent Capital Growth

Earlier periods (Q2–Q4 2024) reported significant capital building (e.g. net worth around $86.5–$95 billion and building $37 billion in regulatory capital " " " " " ).

Q1 2025 demonstrated further capital strengthening with net worth reaching $98 billion, a 20% increase over Q1 2024, and reduction of the capital shortfall by $6 billion. " "

Capital growth remains a consistent narrative, with a modest improvement in balance sheet strength over time.

Robust Liquidity Provision to Support the Housing Market

Q2, Q3, and Q4 2024 discussions noted large-scale liquidity support—ranging from $95 billion in Q2, $106 billion in Q3, to $381 billion provided throughout 2024—to assist millions of households and support affordable multifamily housing. " " " " " "

Q1 2025 reported providing $76 billion of liquidity supporting specific numbers of households and first‐time buyers, focusing on single‐family and multifamily segments. "

The liquidity provision narrative remains strong, though the current period’s figures are quarter-specific and lower in absolute terms compared to annual totals from previous periods.

Persistent Regulatory Capital Shortfall and Capital Structure Vulnerabilities

Q4 2024 highlighted a $146 billion shortfall due to issues like the non-qualifying $120.8 billion in senior preferred stock; Q3 2024 mentioned a $17 billion reduction in the shortfall, while Q2 2024 did not address it explicitly. " " " "

Q1 2025 reported a $140 billion shortfall with an improvement of $6 billion relative to year-end 2024, reiterating ongoing capital structure challenges. " "

While persistent, the regulatory capital shortfall is gradually narrowing, reflecting some progress in capital management.

Strong Single-Family Credit Quality and Underwriting Standards

In Q2–Q4 2024, discussions consistently noted robust underwriting standards (weighted average LTV ratios around 50% and credit scores around 753–759), low serious delinquency rates, and substantial credit enhancements (46%–47% protected). " " " "

Q1 2025 reaffirmed these metrics with a weighted average LTV of 50%, credit score at origination of 753, and a low SDQ rate of 56 basis points, accompanied by active credit risk transfer transactions protecting 47% of the book. " "

A stable and consistently strong credit quality narrative continues with minor adjustments in credit metrics and enhanced credit risk transfer practices.

Multifamily Segment Vulnerabilities

Q2, Q3, and Q4 2024 documented rising credit loss provisions (ranging from increases of $257 million in Q4 to $424 million in Q3), rising serious delinquency rates (44–57 basis points), decline in property values of about 19%–20% from peaks, and, in some quarters, mentions of suspected fraud. " " " " "

Q1 2025 noted a shift in credit loss treatment (a $24 million provision vs. a prior benefit), an increase in the multifamily SDQ rate to 63 basis points, and an 18% decline in property values from their peak—with no mention of fraud concerns. " "

Multifamily vulnerabilities persist, with rising delinquencies and credit loss concerns; however, there is an indication of stabilization in property values and slight shifts in loss recognition.

Economic Headwinds

Q2 through Q4 2024 earnings calls pointed to affordability challenges (rapid home price increases relative to income), high mortgage rates (averages around 6.5%–7.0%), and low consumer sentiment impacting home sales and existing home sales volumes. " " " " "

Q1 2025 continued to confront affordability challenges with a 5.2% annual increase in home prices, a slightly increased average mortgage rate of 6.8%, and the broader context of muted market activity, although consumer sentiment was not explicitly quantified. " "

Economic headwinds remain a prominent theme across periods, with similar challenges persisting despite minor variations in rate and price metrics.

Mortgage Origination Trends and Future Market Outlook

Previous quarters (Q2–Q4 2024) offered forecasts and actuals indicating growth in single-family originations (from around $1.5 trillion to estimates up to $1.9 trillion in 2025) and steady multifamily volumes (ranging from $245 billion to $315 billion, with some forecasts up to $375 billion), alongside projections for slowing home price growth and modest home sales recovery. " " " " "

Q1 2025 provided positive signals with a 16% increase in single-family originations in the first quarter and detailed projections for 2025 (e.g., 6.5% average mortgage rates, increased volumes, and moderated home price growth to 4.1% year-over-year). " " "

The outlook remains cautiously optimistic with continued growth in origination volumes against a backdrop of persistent headwinds, reflecting a slow but steady recovery in market activity.

Emergence of Financial Innovation

Q2 and Q3 2024 earnings calls actively discussed the issuance of social bonds (over $5 billion in single-family and $4 billion in multifamily in Q2, and further exploration of social bonds in Q3) aimed at supporting affordable housing and underserved markets. " " "

Q1 2025 did not mention any new initiatives or references to financial innovation such as social bonds issuance.

There is a notable decline in emphasis on financial innovation in Q1 2025, suggesting that this topic is no longer a focus in the current period.

Shifting Sentiment on Credit Risk Dynamics Across Segments

In Q2–Q4 2024, discussions provided detailed insights into evolving credit risk profiles with active credit risk transfers, benefits and provisions for credit losses in both single-family and multifamily segments, and adjustments to credit reserves, with the multifamily segment facing higher vulnerabilities and even mentions of fraud in some quarters. " " " " "

In Q1 2025, credit risk dynamics were again dissected—highlighting robust single-family metrics and increased credit protections alongside rising multifamily SDQs and more cautious loss provisions—indicating persistent concerns particularly for multifamily loans. " "

The narrative remains consistent in monitoring shifting credit risks, with a continued cautious tone; single-family credit quality remains strong while multifamily vulnerabilities are increasingly pronounced.